Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have reached a record high in 2024, according to new research by the Global Carbon Project science team.
The 2024 Global Carbon Budget projects fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of 37.4 billion tonnes, up 0.8% from 2023.
Despite the urgent need to cut emissions to slow climate change, the researchers say there is still “no sign” that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions.
With projected emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) of 4.2 billion tonnes, total CO2 emissions are projected to be 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes last year.
Over the last 10 years, fossil CO2 emissions have risen while land-use change CO2 emissions have declined on average – leaving overall emissions roughly level over that period.
This year, both fossil and land-use change CO2 emissions are set to rise, with drought conditions exacerbating emissions from deforestation and forest degradation fires during the El Niño climate event of 2023-2024.
With over 40 billion tonnes released each year at present, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere continues to rise – driving increasingly dangerous global warming.
The research team included the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich, Alfred-Wegener-Institut and 80 other institutions around the world.
“The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study.
Other key findings from the 2024 Global Carbon Budget include:
Globally, emissions from different fossil fuels in 2024 are projected to increase: coal (0.2%), oil (0.9%), gas (2.4%). These contribute 41%, 32% and 21% of global fossil CO2 emissions respectively.
China’s emissions (32% of the global total) are projected to marginally increase by 0.2%…
US emissions (13% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 0.6%.
India’s emissions (8% of the global total) are projected to increase by 4.6%.
European Union emissions (7% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 3.8%.
Emissions in the rest of the world (38% of the global total) are projected to increase by 1.1%.
Atmospheric CO2 levels are set to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024, 2.8 parts per million above 2023, and 52% above pre-industrial levels.
How long until we pass 1.5°C of global warming?
This study estimates the remaining “carbon budget” before the 1.5°C target is breached consistently over multiple years, not just for a single year. At the current rate of emissions, the Global Carbon Budget team estimates a 50% chance global warming will exceed 1.5°C consistently in about six years. ….it’s clear that the remaining carbon budget – and therefore the time left to meet the 1.5°C target and avoid the worst impacts of climate change – has almost run out.
These are excerpts from the News Release issued on November 13, 2024.